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Red82
472833.7
851615.3
250922.5
Blue90
305820.7
453931.1
310221.9
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7576607080901008290

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4728
#21
33.70.9
33.033.9
Auto12.9
Teleop17.9
End2.9
red by 2.7
31.11.4
29.130.5
Auto9.9
Teleop19.0
End2.1
Second
2509
#31
22.51.2
21.322.5
Auto7.5
Teleop12.4
End2.6
red by 0.6
3102
#29
21.91.4
20.521.9
Auto7.1
Teleop12.0
End2.8
Third
8516
#45
15.30.9
14.415.3
Auto7.1
Teleop7.1
End1.1
blue by 5.4
3058
#16
20.71.4
19.120.5
Auto7.9
Teleop10.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
74%Melody oddsEarned80%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
21%Ensemble oddsMissed26%Ensemble oddsEarned