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Red89
193917.5
173034.5
176914.6
Blue79
297218.2
545420.1
235734.9
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions617720401001208979

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.52.0
32.234.3
Auto11.7
Teleop19.3
End3.4
blue by 0.4
34.90.7
35.836.5
Auto10.8
Teleop19.7
End4.4
Second
1939
#16
17.52.0
12.414.4
Auto5.5
Teleop10.4
End1.6
blue by 2.6
5454
#19
20.10.7
17.318.0
Auto7.0
Teleop12.9
End0.2
Third
1769
#17
14.62.0
12.114.2
Auto4.9
Teleop8.5
End1.2
blue by 3.6
2972
#20
18.20.7
14.815.5
Auto9.9
Teleop7.1
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
74%Melody oddsEarned71%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
44%Ensemble oddsMissed29%Ensemble oddsMissed