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Red74
580133.7
509816.6
180616.5
Blue84
177512.2
882523.2
476633.5
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions607202040801001201407484

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5801
#13
33.71.2
28.529.7
Auto12.4
Teleop19.9
End1.4
red by 0.3
33.51.2
30.832.1
Auto14.4
Teleop17.2
End1.8
Second
5098
#11
16.61.2
13.915.1
Auto6.9
Teleop8.8
End1.0
blue by 6.6
8825
#18
23.21.2
20.421.6
Auto7.1
Teleop13.7
End2.4
Third
1806
#28
16.51.2
13.514.7
Auto4.7
Teleop10.9
End0.9
red by 4.2
1775
#35
12.21.2
12.213.4
Auto4.4
Teleop7.1
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
67%Melody oddsEarned78%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed19%Ensemble oddsMissed