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Red71
234515.8
193917.5
180616.5
Blue83
495914.3
580133.7
199715.8
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions476302040801001201407183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1939
#16
17.51.3
14.716.0
Auto5.5
Teleop10.4
End1.6
blue by 16.2
5801
#13
33.71.5
29.731.3
Auto12.4
Teleop19.9
End1.4
Second
1806
#28
16.51.3
14.716.0
Auto4.7
Teleop10.9
End0.9
red by 0.7
1997
#21
15.81.5
12.413.9
Auto8.2
Teleop6.7
End0.9
Third
2345
#27
15.81.3
15.016.3
Auto7.4
Teleop8.3
End0.0
red by 1.4
4959
#22
14.31.5
12.714.2
Auto6.2
Teleop6.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
29%Melody oddsEarned69%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed5%Ensemble oddsMissed