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Red64
245710.6
639121.3
198728.9
Blue24
50989.8
455015.5
642013.3
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions614320801006424

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.91.2
25.526.7
Auto9.4
Teleop17.1
End2.4
red by 13.4
4550
#16
15.51.9
19.817.9
Auto5.2
Teleop8.7
End1.6
Second
6391
#10
21.31.2
15.516.8
Auto7.2
Teleop12.7
End1.4
red by 8.0
6420
#21
13.31.9
15.113.2
Auto5.2
Teleop7.1
End0.9
Third
2457
#15
10.61.2
12.013.3
Auto3.5
Teleop6.8
End0.3
red by 0.9
5098
#20
9.81.9
6.14.2
Auto5.3
Teleop3.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsEarned32%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed