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Red83
22226.1
71420.9
901518.6
Blue90
259034.1
851327.7
568428.2
13%Model gave it87%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions651030501508390

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
222
#33
26.10.7
25.426.1
Auto8.2
Teleop15.3
End2.7
blue by 8.0
34.10.1
33.333.3
Auto12.0
Teleop18.0
End4.1
Second
714
#20
20.90.7
20.220.9
Auto8.4
Teleop9.3
End3.2
blue by 7.3
5684
#38
28.20.1
28.128.2
Auto9.8
Teleop16.3
End2.1
Third
9015
#58
18.60.7
17.918.6
Auto8.8
Teleop9.1
End0.7
blue by 9.1
8513
#21
27.70.1
27.627.7
Auto10.2
Teleop12.6
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
56%Melody oddsEarned91%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
43%Ensemble oddsMissed62%Ensemble oddsEarned