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Red54
91035.7
601722.0
347211.1
Blue53
66065.6
347832.9
477511.2
11%Model gave it89%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions325702040801005453

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.01.3
17.118.3
Auto6.3
Teleop14.2
End1.5
blue by 10.9
32.90.8
28.327.5
Auto12.6
Teleop16.8
End3.5
Second
11.11.1
7.99.1
Auto4.6
Teleop5.3
End1.1
blue by 0.1
4775
#19
11.20.7
8.98.2
Auto4.0
Teleop5.7
End1.6
Third
9103
#16
5.71.9
7.19.0
Auto1.5
Teleop3.5
End0.6
red by 0.1
6606
#29
5.61.1
11.210.0
Auto1.9
Teleop2.4
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
29%Melody oddsEarned43%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed18%Ensemble oddsEarned