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Red35
264220.7
820510.4
672916.3
Blue7
744311.7
153313.1
345913.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions35460206080100357

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.70.1
13.813.9
Auto5.7
Teleop14.1
End0.9
red by 7.2
3459
#20
13.53.7
11.17.4
Auto6.2
Teleop6.4
End0.8
Second
16.30.2
10.210.4
Auto6.3
Teleop8.7
End1.3
red by 3.1
1533
#16
13.13.7
17.413.7
Auto4.9
Teleop6.7
End1.5
Third
8205
#11
10.40.2
9.39.5
Auto2.4
Teleop6.6
End1.5
blue by 1.3
7443
#18
11.73.7
11.98.2
Auto2.8
Teleop7.6
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody oddsMissed24%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed