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Red65
650012.9
345913.5
456117.0
Blue62
319620.5
900813.6
689418.0
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4056020801006562

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
17.01.6
15.617.2
Auto6.0
Teleop10.2
End0.9
blue by 3.5
20.51.0
19.120.1
Auto5.7
Teleop13.4
End1.5
Second
3459
#20
13.51.6
11.713.3
Auto6.2
Teleop6.4
End0.8
blue by 4.5
18.01.0
17.318.3
Auto7.3
Teleop9.0
End1.6
Third
6500
#14
12.91.6
10.812.4
Auto6.6
Teleop5.2
End1.2
blue by 0.6
9008
#12
13.61.0
12.013.0
Auto5.3
Teleop6.5
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsEarned26%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed24%Ensemble oddsMissed