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Red70
874615.9
482827.5
900825.1
Blue47
205918.7
970711.1
600413.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions744220601001201407047

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.50.3
24.825.2
Auto10.3
Teleop14.5
End2.6
red by 8.7
2059
#11
18.70.2
18.018.1
Auto8.6
Teleop8.7
End1.4
Second
25.10.3
23.624.0
Auto9.6
Teleop13.4
End2.0
red by 11.2
6004
#26
13.90.2
13.113.3
Auto6.1
Teleop6.9
End0.9
Third
8746
#15
15.90.3
14.615.0
Auto6.2
Teleop8.0
End1.7
red by 4.8
9707
#14
11.10.2
11.111.3
Auto4.6
Teleop6.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
63%Melody oddsEarned19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed