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Red29
8778.1
42389.5
305816.9
Blue79
957619.2
563823.9
392611.5
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions344710203040607080902979

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3058
#25
16.90.4
13.012.6
Auto7.0
Teleop8.2
End1.6
blue by 7.0
23.92.0
14.616.7
Auto5.9
Teleop15.8
End2.1
Second
4238
#53
9.50.4
10.09.6
Auto4.2
Teleop4.1
End1.1
blue by 9.7
9576
#15
19.22.0
12.814.8
Auto6.3
Teleop10.9
End2.0
Third
877
#44
8.10.4
9.79.3
Auto4.8
Teleop2.9
End0.5
blue by 3.4
3926
#31
11.52.0
13.415.4
Auto4.2
Teleop5.2
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsMissed27%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsEarned