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Red65
99926.6
862614.7
454626.1
Blue101
581335.7
964419.6
105832.8
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7896406012014016065101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
999
#17
26.60.7
29.428.8
Auto8.9
Teleop15.1
End2.6
blue by 9.1
5813
#11
35.71.1
34.635.7
Auto13.2
Teleop17.2
End5.4
Second
4546
#46
26.10.7
24.223.6
Auto9.9
Teleop15.2
End0.9
blue by 6.7
1058
#16
32.81.1
31.832.9
Auto12.2
Teleop18.2
End2.4
Third
8626
#48
14.70.7
19.218.6
Auto9.9
Teleop4.3
End0.5
blue by 4.9
9644
#33
19.61.1
18.219.3
Auto8.7
Teleop8.3
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
86%Melody oddsEarned89%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
21%Ensemble oddsMissed38%Ensemble oddsMissed