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Red118
105832.8
514222.5
632943.8
Blue82
693328.2
964419.6
346121.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115735010015011882

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6329
#13
43.80.6
44.645.2
Auto12.8
Teleop28.5
End2.5
red by 15.6
6933
#40
28.20.7
29.829.1
Auto12.0
Teleop14.3
End1.9
Second
1058
#16
32.80.6
32.933.4
Auto12.2
Teleop18.2
End2.4
red by 11.2
3461
#36
21.60.7
21.620.9
Auto6.6
Teleop14.4
End0.6
Third
5142
#27
22.50.6
21.822.4
Auto8.3
Teleop11.0
End3.3
red by 3.0
9644
#33
19.60.7
19.318.6
Auto8.7
Teleop8.3
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
98%Melody oddsEarned85%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
31%Ensemble oddsEarned24%Ensemble oddsEarned