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Red114
17525.4
31923.5
12544.4
Blue98
673125.6
944328.7
318222.6
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103705015011498

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
125
#1
44.41.7
42.444.0
Auto17.4
Teleop20.8
End6.2
red by 15.7
9443
#15
28.71.7
25.026.7
Auto13.0
Teleop12.5
End3.2
Second
175
#6
25.41.7
24.926.5
Auto7.6
Teleop14.9
End2.9
blue by 0.2
6731
#26
25.61.7
22.123.8
Auto9.1
Teleop13.9
End2.7
Third
319
#31
23.51.7
22.023.7
Auto5.3
Teleop16.8
End1.5
red by 0.9
3182
#41
22.61.7
20.322.0
Auto9.2
Teleop10.7
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
91%Melody oddsEarned54%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
40%Ensemble oddsEarned66%Ensemble oddsMissed