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Red79
175720.3
490523.5
169939.8
Blue63
490931.0
271335.5
46725.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions881000501502007963

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.80.1
36.035.9
Auto13.4
Teleop23.5
End2.9
red by 4.3
2713
#18
35.51.7
32.530.8
Auto10.3
Teleop23.7
End1.5
Second
4905
#27
23.50.1
23.823.7
Auto8.1
Teleop12.6
End2.9
blue by 7.4
4909
#13
31.01.7
31.429.7
Auto13.3
Teleop14.5
End3.2
Third
1757
#20
20.30.1
21.321.2
Auto5.5
Teleop12.4
End2.5
blue by 5.1
467
#32
25.31.7
24.923.2
Auto9.7
Teleop13.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
82%Melody oddsEarned94%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
39%Ensemble oddsMissed41%Ensemble oddsMissed