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Red81
301532.4
947511.1
179717.4
Blue60
591415.3
839318.9
593318.4
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions595302040801008160

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3015
#51
32.41.9
34.236.1
Auto14.2
Teleop13.3
End5.0
red by 13.5
8393
#66
18.90.8
16.617.4
Auto7.8
Teleop9.1
End2.0
Second
1797
#49
17.41.9
11.213.1
Auto5.6
Teleop10.3
End1.5
blue by 1.0
5933
#55
18.40.8
14.315.1
Auto4.7
Teleop10.9
End2.8
Third
9475
#67
11.12.1
7.39.4
Auto3.2
Teleop6.7
End1.2
blue by 4.2
5914
#68
15.30.8
17.618.4
Auto5.7
Teleop9.0
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
49%Melody oddsEarned43%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
79%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed