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Red126
642923.5
118938.3
477933.4
Blue88
691932.9
960932.8
87809.9
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions987720406012014012688

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1189
#35
38.31.4
34.736.1
Auto12.0
Teleop24.7
End1.5
red by 5.3
6919
#18
32.90.4
31.030.5
Auto9.5
Teleop21.6
End1.8
Second
4779
#11
33.41.4
30.832.2
Auto8.8
Teleop22.0
End2.7
red by 0.7
9609
#24
32.80.4
30.830.3
Auto11.8
Teleop17.9
End3.1
Third
6429
#34
23.51.4
20.421.8
Auto7.0
Teleop15.6
End0.9
red by 13.7
8780
#63
9.90.4
10.710.3
Auto5.7
Teleop4.4
End-0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
95%Melody oddsEarned71%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
24%Ensemble oddsMissed20%Ensemble oddsEarned