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Red40
13077.4
905610.1
632828.0
Blue37
404112.4
791315.1
13821.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3841203050604037

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.00.3
21.722.0
Auto13.0
Teleop12.4
End2.7
red by 7.0
138
#10
21.00.2
15.916.1
Auto8.4
Teleop9.8
End2.9
Second
9056
#20
10.10.3
7.37.7
Auto3.6
Teleop4.6
End1.9
blue by 5.0
7913
#27
15.10.2
12.712.9
Auto2.4
Teleop10.8
End1.9
Third
1307
#32
7.40.3
7.88.2
Auto2.3
Teleop3.1
End2.0
blue by 5.0
4041
#14
12.40.2
6.76.9
Auto4.5
Teleop7.0
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsMissed15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed