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Red68
105830.5
404112.4
52655.9
Blue49
872415.3
80238.5
35665.6
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions453902060801006849

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.51.9
23.925.7
Auto10.9
Teleop17.7
End2.0
red by 15.3
8724
#26
15.30.3
16.817.1
Auto6.7
Teleop7.9
End0.6
Second
4041
#14
12.41.9
10.512.3
Auto4.5
Teleop7.0
End0.9
red by 3.9
8023
#28
8.50.3
12.212.5
Auto3.2
Teleop4.0
End1.3
Third
5265
#34
5.92.3
5.88.1
Auto1.2
Teleop4.5
End0.2
red by 0.3
3566
#30
5.60.3
6.97.3
Auto0.8
Teleop3.5
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsEarned13%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed