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Red60
83418.4
55519.2
85885.8
Blue13
46522.3
351511.5
86288.6
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions372701020304050606013

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
555
#4
19.22.6
12.715.2
Auto9.4
Teleop9.1
End0.7
red by 7.7
3515
#21
11.51.4
7.56.1
Auto4.7
Teleop6.1
End0.7
Second
834
#2
18.42.6
15.117.6
Auto8.4
Teleop8.0
End2.1
red by 9.9
8628
#22
8.61.4
6.14.7
Auto4.6
Teleop3.9
End0.1
Third
8588
#16
5.81.5
4.25.7
Auto2.3
Teleop2.6
End0.9
red by 3.5
4652
#27DQ
2.31.4
11.810.4
Auto1.1
Teleop0.8
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
12%Melody oddsEarned15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed