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Red70
559017.4
599311.2
159134.9
Blue30
691117.7
33317.0
16018.2
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5638020801007030

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.91.6
28.730.3
Auto14.9
Teleop16.6
End3.4
red by 17.2
6911
#36
17.70.4
13.413.0
Auto3.8
Teleop11.3
End2.6
Second
5590
#10
17.42.0
9.611.6
Auto8.7
Teleop7.4
End1.2
red by 0.4
333
#33
17.00.7
14.213.5
Auto6.5
Teleop9.6
End1.0
Third
5993
#37
11.22.0
9.911.9
Auto3.9
Teleop6.0
End1.3
red by 3.0
1601
#44
8.20.7
8.67.9
Auto4.2
Teleop3.3
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
40%Melody oddsEarned21%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed