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Red53
824315.6
29113.4
446721.6
Blue43
414523.2
541312.5
788511.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5551203040607080905343

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4467
#22
21.60.4
21.021.4
Auto6.8
Teleop12.2
End2.5
blue by 1.6
4145
#12
23.20.3
22.121.8
Auto8.7
Teleop14.1
End0.5
Second
8243
#14
15.60.4
15.215.6
Auto3.5
Teleop8.6
End3.5
red by 3.1
5413
#47
12.50.3
12.812.5
Auto4.2
Teleop6.1
End2.2
Third
291
#33
13.40.4
13.113.4
Auto5.3
Teleop7.1
End1.0
red by 1.9
7885
#35
11.50.4
11.911.5
Auto5.6
Teleop3.9
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
52%Melody oddsMissed35%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsEarned8%Ensemble oddsMissed