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Red78
222019.6
814515.4
260321.9
Blue73
45119.7
103824.6
696415.9
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5656404550606570757873

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2603
#33
21.91.4
19.020.4
Auto7.6
Teleop12.7
End1.7
blue by 2.6
24.61.6
20.221.8
Auto5.5
Teleop13.3
End5.8
Second
2220
#19
19.61.4
17.118.5
Auto5.9
Teleop11.9
End1.8
blue by 0.1
451
#21
19.71.6
19.120.7
Auto7.0
Teleop11.3
End1.3
Third
8145
#43
15.41.4
15.917.3
Auto6.3
Teleop8.2
End1.0
blue by 0.5
6964
#45
15.91.6
10.411.9
Auto5.3
Teleop8.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
63%Melody oddsEarned61%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
5%Ensemble oddsMissed35%Ensemble oddsMissed