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Red48
156116.3
40058.5
42939.9
Blue42
3112.4
441813.7
96318.8
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46321020405060704842

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1561
#28
16.30.8
14.613.8
Auto7.3
Teleop8.6
End0.5
red by 2.7
4418
#17
13.71.3
10.912.1
Auto5.6
Teleop7.7
End0.4
Second
4293
#23
9.90.8
13.312.5
Auto3.7
Teleop5.2
End1.1
blue by 2.4
31
#25
12.41.3
10.511.8
Auto4.3
Teleop6.1
End1.9
Third
4005
#35
8.50.8
12.411.6
Auto1.5
Teleop6.0
End1.0
blue by 0.4
9631
#43
8.81.6
8.810.4
Auto3.5
Teleop4.7
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
23%Melody oddsMissed20%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsEarned10%Ensemble oddsMissed