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Red21
432921.5
235210.5
181914.9
Blue47
294517.7
233318.8
555020.3
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions484101001502147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.52.4
16.514.1
Auto6.8
Teleop13.4
End1.3
red by 1.1
20.31.0
14.715.7
Auto8.8
Teleop10.1
End1.5
Second
1819
#14
14.92.4
13.411.0
Auto5.6
Teleop8.7
End0.6
blue by 3.9
18.81.0
11.912.9
Auto5.0
Teleop12.2
End1.5
Third
2352
#33
10.52.4
12.610.2
Auto4.1
Teleop5.7
End0.7
blue by 7.2
2945
#12
17.71.0
11.012.0
Auto5.3
Teleop11.0
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
32%Melody oddsMissed26%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed21%Ensemble oddsMissed