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Red67
755832.6
540931.8
906225.8
Blue92
752021.7
591226.7
263426.4
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions97750501506792

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7558
#18
32.61.3
30.028.6
Auto10.3
Teleop19.0
End3.3
red by 6.0
5912
#10
26.70.8
25.226.0
Auto10.7
Teleop13.5
End2.5
Second
31.81.3
30.429.1
Auto6.1
Teleop16.8
End8.9
red by 5.4
26.40.8
24.525.3
Auto7.7
Teleop16.0
End2.6
Third
9062
#27
25.81.3
24.723.4
Auto11.2
Teleop13.4
End1.2
red by 4.1
7520
#26
21.70.8
21.021.8
Auto9.4
Teleop9.0
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
84%Melody oddsEarned44%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
40%Ensemble oddsMissed44%Ensemble oddsEarned