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Red65
238619.4
434318.1
495111.5
Blue62
415223.2
748016.5
49409.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50470204060801001206562

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.41.1
21.522.6
Auto7.7
Teleop9.9
End1.8
blue by 3.8
23.22.1
18.921.0
Auto6.2
Teleop12.2
End4.8
Second
4343
#14
18.11.1
15.716.8
Auto6.4
Teleop11.0
End0.7
red by 1.6
7480
#31
16.52.1
15.217.4
Auto6.4
Teleop10.0
End0.2
Third
4951
#18
11.51.1
8.09.1
Auto3.7
Teleop6.9
End1.0
red by 1.7
4940
#26
9.82.1
8.510.7
Auto1.0
Teleop7.7
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
37%Melody oddsEarned11%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsEarned31%Ensemble oddsMissed