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Red80
111417.4
205647.2
69755.3
Blue68
447620.6
872917.4
415223.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7363405080901001108068

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.20.7
43.744.4
Auto18.9
Teleop25.2
End3.1
red by 24.0
23.20.9
21.822.7
Auto6.2
Teleop12.2
End4.8
Second
17.40.7
16.016.8
Auto5.1
Teleop10.9
End1.3
blue by 3.3
4476
#13
20.60.9
20.121.0
Auto7.5
Teleop10.9
End2.2
Third
6975
#32
5.30.7
5.36.0
Auto4.0
Teleop0.4
End0.9
blue by 12.1
8729
#22
17.40.9
16.317.2
Auto8.0
Teleop7.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
83%Melody oddsEarned50%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
32%Ensemble oddsMissed43%Ensemble oddsMissed