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Red60
540622.6
68665.8
293521.7
Blue27
96219.1
260917.1
503610.9
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54340204060806027

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.60.9
21.922.7
Auto8.2
Teleop12.2
End2.2
red by 5.5
17.10.6
15.114.5
Auto6.6
Teleop9.7
End0.8
Second
21.70.9
20.421.2
Auto9.8
Teleop12.0
End-0.0
red by 10.8
5036
#13
10.90.4
9.99.5
Auto4.8
Teleop5.6
End0.5
Third
6866
#16
5.80.9
3.94.8
Auto1.8
Teleop3.7
End0.4
blue by 3.3
9621
#21
9.10.4
8.37.8
Auto4.3
Teleop2.6
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
41%Melody oddsEarned18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
22%Ensemble oddsMissed4%Ensemble oddsMissed