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Red76
41274.4
281129.6
448830.8
Blue47
960012.8
956714.4
644325.8
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71582040801007647

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.80.9
29.530.4
Auto10.6
Teleop17.2
End3.0
red by 4.9
25.80.5
25.925.5
Auto8.6
Teleop15.9
End1.4
Second
29.60.9
29.630.5
Auto9.9
Teleop14.6
End5.0
red by 15.2
9567
#27
14.40.5
15.815.3
Auto5.6
Teleop6.3
End2.6
Third
4127
#36
4.40.9
3.54.4
Auto2.9
Teleop1.0
End0.5
blue by 8.4
9600
#30
12.80.5
12.612.1
Auto6.0
Teleop5.6
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
65%Melody oddsEarned43%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
37%Ensemble oddsEarned15%Ensemble oddsMissed