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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5723040807733

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.91.0
19.620.6
Auto7.9
Teleop15.3
End1.7
red by 8.0
2815
#10
16.90.6
13.013.5
Auto7.9
Teleop6.5
End2.4
Second
342
#4
17.71.0
13.614.6
Auto5.8
Teleop10.3
End1.6
red by 5.7
6167
#18
12.00.6
9.510.1
Auto6.1
Teleop5.0
End1.0
Third
8575
#11
16.01.0
13.914.9
Auto6.6
Teleop8.3
End1.1
red by 10.9
3976
#21
5.10.6
2.02.6
Auto2.7
Teleop1.9
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
16%Melody oddsEarned8%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed4%Ensemble oddsMissed