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Red18
588311.1
94362.7
94649.5
Blue41
96905.7
705011.5
94689.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2827102040501841

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5883
#35
11.10.7
10.59.9
Auto4.0
Teleop5.7
End1.4
blue by 0.4
7050
#17
11.51.0
9.911.0
Auto5.9
Teleop4.1
End1.5
Second
9464
#31
9.50.7
8.27.5
Auto5.1
Teleop3.5
End0.9
blue by 0.3
9468
#43
9.80.7
8.28.9
Auto4.0
Teleop5.8
End0.1
Third
9436
#52
2.70.7
5.54.8
Auto2.0
Teleop-0.1
End0.8
blue by 3.0
9690
#49
5.71.0
7.68.6
Auto2.0
Teleop3.4
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsMissed13%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsMissed