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Red78
246841.3
415312.4
750611.4
Blue17
73210.7
754011.3
41817.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6543020801001207817

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.31.1
33.234.3
Auto12.7
Teleop26.7
End1.9
red by 24.1
418
#20
17.21.6
19.718.1
Auto7.2
Teleop9.0
End1.0
Second
4153
#12
12.41.9
12.914.8
Auto4.4
Teleop7.3
End0.6
red by 1.0
7540
#22
11.32.7
11.08.3
Auto5.9
Teleop5.0
End0.5
Third
7506
#17
11.41.9
9.811.7
Auto6.5
Teleop3.6
End1.3
red by 10.7
7321
#29DQ
0.72.7
10.57.8
Auto-0.6
Teleop0.3
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
67%Melody oddsEarned18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
18%Ensemble oddsMissed17%Ensemble oddsMissed