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Red10
264011.3
572419.9
99997.3
Blue2
99967.3
99977.3
99987.3
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions498100150200250102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5724
Unranked
19.90.0
19.919.9
Auto6.6
Teleop10.8
End2.5
red by 12.6
9996
Unranked
7.30.0
7.37.3
Auto2.6
Teleop3.7
End0.5
Second
2640
Unranked
11.30.0
11.311.3
Auto5.8
Teleop4.2
End1.2
red by 4.0
9997
Unranked
7.30.0
7.37.3
Auto2.6
Teleop3.7
End0.5
Third
9999
Unranked
7.30.0
7.37.3
Auto2.6
Teleop3.7
End0.5
Level
9998
Unranked
7.30.0
7.37.3
Auto2.6
Teleop3.7
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody odds2%Melody odds
Ensemble
23%Ensemble odds6%Ensemble odds