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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions534002060801004430

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
122
#5
21.90.2
21.221.1
Auto8.9
Teleop11.3
End1.7
red by 5.5
5549
#10
16.40.8
16.515.7
Auto6.7
Teleop8.9
End0.7
Second
116
#14
15.90.2
15.815.6
Auto7.6
Teleop6.6
End1.8
red by 6.2
611
#17
9.70.8
11.010.2
Auto2.0
Teleop6.2
End1.6
Third
5243
#23
9.90.2
9.69.4
Auto4.9
Teleop4.0
End0.9
red by 1.1
1915
#31
8.80.8
10.29.4
Auto3.8
Teleop5.0
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
29%Melody oddsMissed30%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed