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Red79
131824.7
159516.2
406014.4
Blue51
408918.8
498016.1
546815.4
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4350102030607080907951

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.72.0
18.220.1
Auto9.0
Teleop12.7
End3.1
red by 5.9
18.80.4
17.417.8
Auto6.5
Teleop10.4
End1.9
Second
1595
#12
16.23.3
12.015.3
Auto3.3
Teleop10.2
End2.7
red by 0.1
16.10.7
14.615.4
Auto6.0
Teleop8.0
End2.2
Third
4060
#18
14.42.0
9.311.3
Auto5.1
Teleop6.2
End3.0
blue by 1.1
5468
#21
15.40.4
12.412.8
Auto5.4
Teleop7.7
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
34%Melody oddsMissed13%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
22%Ensemble oddsEarned23%Ensemble oddsMissed