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Red59
998619.8
95874.5
477423.2
Blue13
99924.2
91895.4
91469.8
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions47140204060805913

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.21.1
19.320.5
Auto9.9
Teleop11.2
End2.1
red by 13.4
9.80.4
9.79.3
Auto4.5
Teleop4.0
End1.3
Second
19.81.5
14.716.2
Auto9.1
Teleop9.8
End0.8
red by 14.4
9189
#13
5.40.4
4.13.8
Auto3.5
Teleop1.4
End0.4
Third
9587
#17
4.51.1
6.27.3
Auto2.3
Teleop1.0
End1.2
red by 0.4
9992
#15
4.20.5
4.64.1
Auto2.1
Teleop1.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
11%Melody oddsEarned4%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed