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Red194
439185.6
76651.0
923433.7
Blue174
940870.1
313251.0
362069.4
19%Model gave it81%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions181217100150200250300194174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+8Teleop
+16Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave0
10Coral scored#9
50Coral points44
50Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +2
23Coral scored#22
82Coral points78
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
18Processor points12
16Net points24
34Algae points36
116Total teleop114
Reef
13L4#14
10L3#7
4L2#7
6L1 · trough#3
40Game pieces#39
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
4Foul points0
194Total score174

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85.60.6
84.985.5
Auto16.5
Teleop59.2
End9.9
red by 15.5
9408
#37
70.12.4
72.470.0
Auto14.1
Teleop47.1
End8.9
Second
766
#54
51.00.6
50.851.4
Auto8.6
Teleop34.4
End8.0
blue by 18.4
3620
#49
69.42.4
72.470.0
Auto22.2
Teleop38.7
End8.5
Third
9234
#61
33.70.6
34.134.7
Auto7.4
Teleop23.2
End3.1
blue by 17.3
3132
#58
51.02.4
54.451.9
Auto9.6
Teleop36.7
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
34%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned