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Red212
440077.9
804479.2
234126.0
Blue149
529839.9
388029.6
234262.7
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions202145100250300212149

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+41Teleop
+57Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave0
9Coral scored#6
45Coral points30
51Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +20
23Coral scored#18
81Coral points63
4Processor algae#5
6Net algae#4
24Processor points30
24Net points16
48Algae points46
129Total teleop109
Reef
9L4#7
12L3#5
5L2#8
6L1 · trough#4
42Game pieces#33
BargeRed +16
26Cage & park10
26Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
6Foul points0
212Total score149

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.21.2
78.579.8
Auto15.8
Teleop54.5
End9.0
red by 16.5
2342
#43
62.70.4
65.065.4
Auto14.2
Teleop39.5
End9.0
Second
4400
#12
77.91.2
73.174.4
Auto19.8
Teleop49.4
End8.7
red by 38.0
5298
#33
39.90.4
38.639.1
Auto7.0
Teleop30.1
End2.8
Third
2341
#57
26.01.2
24.826.0
Auto5.3
Teleop16.7
End4.0
blue by 3.5
3880
#73
29.60.4
27.728.1
Auto5.3
Teleop24.3
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
88%Coral oddsEarned39%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned49%Barge oddsMissed