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Red232
599087.1
162962.9
402873.9
Blue146
348917.3
601423.0
223184.9
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions256134050100150200300350232146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+94Teleop
+92Endgame
+86Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
3Leave9
10Coral scored#4
52Coral points21
55Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +69
29Coral scored#19
103Coral points70
3Processor algae#1
9Net algae#3
18Processor points6
36Net points12
54Algae points18
157Total teleop88
Reef
13L4#8
13L3#9
9L2#2
4L1 · trough#4
51Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +86
6Foul points12
232Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5990
#15
87.10.7
87.386.6
Auto19.9
Teleop64.8
End2.4
red by 2.2
2231
#46
84.90.4
86.185.7
Auto19.2
Teleop56.2
End9.4
Second
4028
#11
73.90.7
74.673.9
Auto19.4
Teleop47.5
End6.9
red by 50.9
6014
#71
23.00.4
24.424.0
Auto4.0
Teleop16.3
End2.7
Third
1629
#41
62.90.7
63.562.8
Auto18.8
Teleop40.5
End3.7
red by 45.6
3489
#74
17.30.4
18.017.6
Auto2.7
Teleop13.4
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
96%Coral oddsEarned17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsMissed56%Barge oddsEarned