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Red174
654855.2
595173.0
313251.0
Blue173
11740.0
38652.5
580167.1
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions181160100120140200220240260174173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+3Teleop
Endgame+5
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave3
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points16
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +8
26Coral scored#21
94Coral points74
3Processor algae#5
5Net algae#9
18Processor points30
20Net points36
38Algae points66
132Total teleop140
Reef
10L4#9
10L3#8
7L2#5
4L1 · trough#2
39Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
6Foul points0
174Total score173

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5951
#17
73.00.2
63.363.1
Auto19.2
Teleop44.0
End9.8
red by 6.0
5801
#51
67.11.1
60.962.0
Auto9.6
Teleop50.7
End6.7
Second
6548
#34
55.20.2
57.557.3
Auto15.3
Teleop37.7
End2.2
red by 2.7
386
#45
52.51.1
51.852.8
Auto10.4
Teleop34.4
End7.8
Third
3132
#58
51.00.2
45.144.8
Auto9.6
Teleop36.7
End4.6
red by 10.9
117
#48
40.01.3
38.139.4
Auto5.7
Teleop30.5
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsMissed