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Red212
402873.9
293549.1
2481103.1
Blue231
595173.0
192365.5
376772.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions239201150250300350212231

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+9
Endgame+19
Fouls+19
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave0
10Coral scored#12
52Coral points58
55Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +6
27Coral scored#30
97Coral points109
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
24Processor points18
20Net points20
44Algae points38
141Total teleop147
Reef
16L4#12
9L3#12
6L2#10
6L1 · trough#8
46Game pieces#50
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +19
0Foul points0
212Total score231

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
103.11.3
96.294.9
Auto25.7
Teleop65.5
End11.8
red by 30.0
5951
#17
73.02.5
63.165.6
Auto19.2
Teleop44.0
End9.8
Second
4028
#11
73.91.3
75.974.5
Auto19.4
Teleop47.5
End6.9
red by 1.9
3767
#31
72.02.5
64.466.9
Auto16.2
Teleop48.1
End7.8
Third
2935
#66
49.11.3
57.155.8
Auto10.3
Teleop34.6
End4.2
blue by 16.3
1923
#22
65.52.5
63.365.8
Auto17.8
Teleop45.9
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
95%Coral oddsMissed79%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned