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Red225
83972.3
362069.4
1007957.1
Blue186
98783.6
529839.9
205269.7
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1981900100300400500225186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+17Teleop
+27Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
10Coral scored#8
51Coral points41
51Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +10
26Coral scored#23
92Coral points84
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
24Processor points18
20Net points24
44Algae points42
136Total teleop126
Reef
11L4#12
11L3#7
9L2#6
5L1 · trough#6
45Game pieces#40
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
12Foul points0
225Total score186

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
839
#29
72.31.9
63.865.7
Auto10.3
Teleop50.6
End11.5
blue by 11.2
987
#14
83.60.4
78.979.3
Auto22.8
Teleop52.6
End8.2
Second
3620
#49
69.41.9
68.670.4
Auto22.2
Teleop38.7
End8.5
blue by 0.3
2052
#38
69.70.4
67.467.8
Auto10.2
Teleop49.3
End10.3
Third
57.11.9
52.954.7
Auto17.3
Teleop37.3
End2.6
red by 17.2
5298
#33
39.90.4
33.934.3
Auto7.0
Teleop30.1
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
64%Coral oddsMissed90%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned