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Red143
394080.1
1012041.6
923433.7
Blue173
38652.5
107662.7
285156.5
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions158186100200250143173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+30
Endgame+30
Fouls+30
AutonomousBlue +11
9Leave6
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points31
26Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +19
21Coral scored#28
75Coral points102
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
103Total teleop122
Reef
12L4#11
5L3#9
3L2#8
4L1 · trough#6
30Game pieces#38
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
0Foul points0
143Total score173

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3940
#30
80.10.1
72.872.8
Auto18.7
Teleop52.0
End9.4
red by 17.3
1076
#28
62.70.3
62.162.4
Auto15.3
Teleop45.0
End2.4
Second
41.60.1
37.937.8
Auto6.3
Teleop31.2
End4.1
blue by 14.9
2851
#60
56.50.3
54.554.8
Auto7.0
Teleop48.2
End1.3
Third
9234
#61
33.70.1
33.633.5
Auto7.4
Teleop23.2
End3.1
blue by 18.8
386
#45
52.50.3
52.252.4
Auto10.4
Teleop34.4
End7.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsMissed87%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
55%Barge oddsMissed50%Barge oddsMissed