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Red178
636987.4
945937.6
162962.9
Blue161
263852.4
388029.6
478857.9
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions200121050100150250300178161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+41Auto
+1Teleop
+11Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +41
6Leave9
10Coral scored#2
52Coral points8
58Total auto17
TeleoperatedBlue +40
23Coral scored#32
84Coral points114
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
6Processor points12
8Net points12
14Algae points24
98Total teleop138
Reef
12L4#11
11L3#13
4L2#4
6L1 · trough#6
36Game pieces#39
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
6Foul points0
178Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6369
#16
87.40.9
84.683.7
Auto21.8
Teleop54.6
End11.0
red by 29.4
4788
#27
57.92.6
49.952.5
Auto6.3
Teleop45.1
End6.6
Second
1629
#41
62.90.9
61.060.2
Auto18.8
Teleop40.5
End3.7
red by 10.5
2638
#68
52.42.6
46.248.8
Auto9.0
Teleop35.9
End7.5
Third
9459
#53
37.60.9
33.332.5
Auto9.1
Teleop25.4
End3.1
red by 8.0
3880
#73
29.62.6
20.823.4
Auto5.3
Teleop24.3
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
45%Coral oddsMissed21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned68%Barge oddsMissed