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Red173
432944.8
223184.9
285156.5
Blue200
414364.5
45858.9
60489.8
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions213178100150200250300173200

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+9
+1Endgame
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave6
6Coral scored#9
28Coral points45
37Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +5
22Coral scored#23
78Coral points81
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
114Total teleop109
Reef
10L4#12
8L3#10
6L2#7
4L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#38
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +27
6Foul points34
173Total score200

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2231
#46
84.92.1
83.581.4
Auto19.2
Teleop56.2
End9.4
blue by 4.9
604
#9
89.80.3
87.086.8
Auto20.8
Teleop60.7
End8.3
Second
2851
#60
56.52.1
56.654.5
Auto7.0
Teleop48.2
End1.3
blue by 7.9
4143
#26
64.50.3
60.560.3
Auto13.2
Teleop43.9
End7.3
Third
4329
#55
44.82.1
46.844.7
Auto10.5
Teleop32.4
End2.0
red by 35.9
4585
#70
8.90.3
11.010.7
Auto5.1
Teleop2.8
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
80%Coral oddsMissed72%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsMissed