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Red167
642447.8
804454.5
658614.8
Blue113
752527.0
618622.8
393750.9
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1191026080140160167113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+8Teleop
+24Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave0
6Coral scored#6
30Coral points30
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +5
13Coral scored#15
48Coral points55
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#3
12Processor points12
24Net points12
36Algae points24
84Total teleop79
Reef
8L4#8
3L3#5
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#26
BargeRed +16
20Cage & park4
20Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
30Foul points0
167Total score113

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.52.2
49.351.5
Auto14.4
Teleop33.8
End6.3
red by 3.6
50.90.9
51.452.3
Auto10.4
Teleop34.0
End6.5
Second
47.82.2
45.347.4
Auto12.8
Teleop25.8
End9.3
red by 20.8
7525
#16
27.00.9
20.421.3
Auto9.6
Teleop15.8
End1.6
Third
6586
#28
14.82.2
10.412.5
Auto4.9
Teleop9.9
End0.0
blue by 8.0
6186
#17
22.80.9
20.921.9
Auto6.8
Teleop12.7
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsEarned25%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsMissed