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Red134
804454.5
449960.3
791726.1
Blue83
543714.9
393750.9
642447.8
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1561248010014018020013483

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+67Teleop
+59Endgame
+51Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points7
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +53
18Coral scored#8
66Coral points29
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#4
12Processor points0
20Net points16
32Algae points16
98Total teleop45
Reef
8L4#4
8L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
30Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +51
0Foul points8
134Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.30.0
58.458.4
Auto13.2
Teleop38.6
End8.6
red by 9.4
50.90.8
50.749.9
Auto10.4
Teleop34.0
End6.5
Second
54.50.0
52.652.6
Auto14.4
Teleop33.8
End6.3
red by 6.7
47.80.8
47.646.8
Auto12.8
Teleop25.8
End9.3
Third
7917
#25
26.10.0
24.224.2
Auto6.6
Teleop14.5
End5.0
red by 11.3
5437
#24
14.90.8
14.713.8
Auto5.3
Teleop8.8
End0.7