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Red180
235739.5
545433.4
642470.7
Blue123
1066134.3
1648.7
500236.6
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15413605001,0001,5002,000180123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+55Teleop
+57Endgame
+57Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave6
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points17
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +48
24Coral scored#17
86Coral points62
4Processor algae#2
6Net algae#3
24Processor points12
24Net points12
48Algae points24
134Total teleop86
Reef
14L4#5
6L3#8
6L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
39Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +57
0Foul points0
180Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.71.5
66.167.6
Auto16.3
Teleop43.2
End11.2
red by 22.0
16
#6
48.71.1
55.354.1
Auto8.6
Teleop34.0
End6.1
Second
39.51.5
35.937.4
Auto9.1
Teleop29.1
End1.3
red by 3.0
36.61.1
36.635.4
Auto9.0
Teleop23.0
End4.6
Third
33.41.5
34.836.2
Auto5.8
Teleop28.1
End-0.5
blue by 0.9
34.31.1
25.123.9
Auto5.3
Teleop25.0
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsEarned