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Red149
642470.7
504523.2
906723.7
Blue162
393764.9
32341.7
1066134.3
25%Model gave it75%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12315950100200250149162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+9Teleop
+11Endgame
Fouls+13
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave3
7Coral scored#5
37Coral points27
43Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +4
17Coral scored#21
62Coral points74
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
90Total teleop94
Reef
11L4#9
7L3#7
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
30Game pieces#30
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
0Foul points24
149Total score162

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.71.8
64.366.1
Auto16.3
Teleop43.2
End11.2
red by 5.8
64.90.9
66.465.5
Auto13.7
Teleop42.9
End8.3
Second
9067
#12
23.71.8
27.128.9
Auto5.5
Teleop15.7
End2.5
blue by 18.0
323
#7
41.70.9
44.643.7
Auto7.1
Teleop30.3
End4.3
Third
23.21.8
16.218.0
Auto5.5
Teleop16.7
End1.0
blue by 11.1
34.30.9
25.925.1
Auto5.3
Teleop25.0
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed40%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
79%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsEarned